People always want to know if it is a buyer’s or seller’s market because it dictates who exactly holds the negotiating power and changes the entire financial strategy of a real estate transaction.
Why Everyone Asks the Question
The Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) vs. Regret: Buyers worry about overpaying or getting into a frantic bidding war, while sellers worry about leaving money on the table or having their home sit unsold for months.
The Illusion of a Single Market: People often look at national headlines, but real estate is hyper-local. A city, or even a specific neighborhood, can tell a completely different story than the rest of the country.
Strategy Overhaul: Knowing the market changes everything—from how fast you have to write an offer and whether you can ask for inspection contingencies, to how you price and stage a house.
Real Estate Agents Look at a Few Core Metrics to Strip Away the Guesswork
Months of Inventory (MOI): How long it would take to sell every home currently listed if no new ones came on the market.
Fewer than 4 months = Seller’s market (tight supply, high demand)
4 to 6 months = Balanced market
More than 6 months = Buyer’s market (surplus of homes)
Days on Market (DOM): How fast houses are flying off the shelves. If homes sell in days with multiple offers, it is a seller's market; if they linger for weeks or months with price cuts, it is a buyer's market.
Sale-to-List Price Ratio: Whether homes are selling above asking price (seller's market) or getting discounted down below asking price (buyer's market).
How to Do the Math:
The Absorption Rate in real estate measures how fast available properties sell in a specific market over a given period of time.
Absorption Rate % = Number of Homes Sold / Total Available Homes
Example: If there are 1,000 homes on the market and 100 sell in a single month, the absorption rate is 10% (100 ÷ 1000) which means the market pace is slow and there is a high inventory of homes. These factors combine to give buyers more power in a real estate transaction. This is very much a buyer’s market.
Flipping the formula to its alternative view calculates Months of Inventory (MOI) and reveals how many months it would take to sell all current inventory if no new homes enter the market: 1,000 homes ÷ 100 homes per month = 10 months of supply. This means that it will take the average home 10 months to sell in the current market if no new inventory is added.
Let’s Apply the Data to the Saanich Peninsula to See How It Works:
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Number of Listed For Sale Non-Waterfront Single Family Dwellings on the Saanich Peninsula May - October, 2026
Between May and October of this year there were 743 active listings for Single Family Dwellings not located on the oceanfront for sale on the Saanich Peninsula.
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Number of Sold Non-Waterfront SFDs on the Saanich Peninsula May - October, 2026
Between May and October of this year there were 217 sales of non-waterfront Single Family Dwellings on the Saanich Peninsula.
217/743 = absorption rate of 0.29% which means almost 1/3 of the inventory sold.
743/217 = 3.64 means the average Single Family Dwelling on the Saanich Peninsula sold in 3.64 months. According to the research, this signals a seller’s market.
Interestingly, when I looked up the data for waterfront Single Family Dwellings on the Saanich Peninsula for the same time period, there were 202 available properties listed and only 21 sales. Calculating the Months of Inventory using the above formula 202/21=9.62 reveals that these properties were taking almost 10 months to sell on average. This means that we had a buyer’s market for a very specific type of property within our area!
By tracking data and using statistics I can determine what kind of real estate market we are experiencing as a city and even hyper-locally and property-type specific. I use objective data to determine the real estate market trend and implement sound, logical reasoning to determine what strategies will create the best economic return for my clients. The value I bring to the table will save you money.