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The Real Estate Tug-of-War: How to Determine If It’s a Buyer’s or Seller’s Market Right Now

     People always want to know if it is a buyer’s or seller’s market because it dictates who exactly holds the negotiating power and changes the entire financial strategy of a real estate transaction.

Why Everyone Asks the Question

  • The Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) vs. Regret: Buyers worry about overpaying or getting into a frantic bidding war, while sellers worry about leaving money on the table or having their home sit unsold for months.

  • The Illusion of a Single Market: People often look at national headlines, but real estate is hyper-local. A city, or even a specific neighborhood, can tell a completely different story than the rest of the country.

  • Strategy Overhaul: Knowing the market changes everything—from how fast you have to write an offer and whether you can ask for inspection contingencies, to how you price and stage a house.

 Real Estate Agents Look at a Few Core Metrics to Strip Away the Guesswork

  • Months of Inventory (MOI): How long it would take to sell every home currently listed if no new ones came on the market.

    • Fewer than 4 months = Seller’s market (tight supply, high demand)

    • 4 to 6 months = Balanced market

    • More than 6 months = Buyer’s market (surplus of homes)

  • Days on Market (DOM): How fast houses are flying off the shelves. If homes sell in days with multiple offers, it is a seller's market; if they linger for weeks or months with price cuts, it is a buyer's market.

  • Sale-to-List Price Ratio: Whether homes are selling above asking price (seller's market) or getting discounted down below asking price (buyer's market).    

How to Do the Math:

     The Absorption Rate in real estate measures how fast available properties sell in a specific market over a given period of time.

Absorption Rate % = Number of Homes Sold /  Total Available Homes

Example: If there are 1,000 homes on the market and 100 sell in a single month, the absorption rate is 10% (100 ÷ 1000) which means the market pace is slow and there is a high inventory of homes. These factors combine to give buyers more power in a real estate transaction. This is very much a buyer’s market.

     Flipping the formula to its alternative view calculates Months of Inventory (MOI) and reveals how many months it would take to sell all current inventory if no new homes enter the market: 1,000 homes ÷ 100 homes per month = 10 months of supply. This means that it will take the average home 10 months to sell in the current market if no new inventory is added.

Let’s Apply the Data to the Saanich Peninsula to See How It Works:

Number of Listed For Sale Non-Waterfront Single Family Dwellings on the Saanich Peninsula May - October, 2026

Between May and October of this year there were 743 active listings for Single Family Dwellings not located on the oceanfront for sale on the Saanich Peninsula.

Number of Sold Non-Waterfront SFDs on the Saanich Peninsula May - October, 2026

Between May and October of this year there were 217 sales of non-waterfront Single Family Dwellings on the Saanich Peninsula.

217/743 = absorption rate of 0.29% which means almost 1/3 of the inventory sold.

743/217 = 3.64 means the average Single Family Dwelling on the Saanich Peninsula sold in 3.64 months. According to the research, this signals a seller’s market.

     Interestingly, when I looked up the data for waterfront Single Family Dwellings on the Saanich Peninsula for the same time period, there were 202 available properties listed and only 21 sales. Calculating the Months of Inventory using the above formula 202/21=9.62 reveals that these properties were taking almost 10 months to sell on average. This means that we had a buyer’s market for a very specific type of property within our area!

     By tracking data and using statistics I can determine what kind of real estate market we are experiencing as a city and even hyper-locally and property-type specific. I use objective data to determine the real estate market trend and implement sound, logical reasoning to determine what strategies will create the best economic return for my clients. The value I bring to the table will save you money.

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I am a CNE. What is that?!

     I am a Certified Negotiation Expert (CNE). My extensive training has prepared me to offer my buyer and seller clients a financial shield and competitive edge in today’s market. Negotiation happens multiple times throughout a real estate transaction and my training has prepared me to handle high-stress scenarios, such as dealing with uncooperative counter-parties or structural defects, without letting the deal collapse. I combine thorough preparation, emotional intelligence, strategic flexibility, creative problem solving, and persistence to advocate on behalf of my clients, protecting their money and their goals.

  • For Sellers: As a certified negotiation expert, I don't just list your home—I protect your equity. My specialized training ensures we handle lowball offers, aggressive contingencies, negative personalities, and repair requests to net you the highest possible return.

  • For Buyers: In a competitive market, finding the home is only half the battle. I use advanced, data-driven negotiation tactics to save your money. Data shows that only a small percentage of buyers feel their agent negotiated a better price (35%) or better contract terms (42%). My training fills that exact void.

How I Do It:

  1. I prepare thoroughly. By actively listening, I make sure I understand my client’s goals, limits, and bottom line ahead of time. I also invest energy into understanding the other party’s motivations, constraints, and perspective.

  2. I stay calm under pressure and manage high-stress personalities, high-tension emotions, difficult counteroffers, and conflicting transaction objectives between parties with calm, regulated reactions. I remain composed, patient, and an active listener throughout negotiations … treating the process as a structured dialogue. I never take the bait and I am never intimidated. I believe negotiations can be handled professionally with respect, confidence, and politeness.

  3. I help determine my client’s best alternative to a negotiated agreement — enabling their power to walk away— which gives them quiet confidence instead of reactive panic.

  4. I use creativity and problem solving skills to find integrative solutions. I understand that collaborating with favourable trading variable options will get my clients further than making unreciprocated concessions.

    If you are looking to work with a real estate agent who is commited to protecting your money and your goals, then contact me. 

    (250) 899-7188

    risa@risagagner.ca

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Just Sold! 10383 Allbay Road, Sidney, BC

MLS 1023165

It was a pleasure to represent my clients in their search for an oceanfront property that would allow them to downsize their home without making any sacrifices in luxury, lifestyle, or coastal views. This residential property within walking distance to the core of Sidney-by-the-Sea ticked every single one of their boxes.

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MLS® property information is provided under copyright© by the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board and Victoria Real Estate Board. The information is from sources deemed reliable, but should not be relied upon without independent verification.